Data Response – Nigeria

Question 1:  Explain using supply and demand diagrams why in the last two decades of the 20th century the long term price of commodities such as oil fell.

One explanation for the drop in oil prices in the last two decades of the 20th century is an increase in its supply, or availability. This increase in supply coincides with times of increased drilling for crude oil in the world, specifically in countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, making it a valid explanation for the drop in long term commodity prices. This increase in supply be demonstrated on a supply and demand graph, as seen in Figure A. Here the supply of oil increases from S1 to S2, causing a decrease in price. The price here drops across the two decades from USD 37 to USD 17, as shown in Figure A. A subsequent effect of the drop in oil prices is the increase in demand and therefore Real GDP, which is shown as Q1 increases to Q2 in Figure A.

 

Question 2:  Explain how falling commodity prices can impede economic development.

With an increase in global oil supply and a drop in oil prices, oil producers receive less revenue for a static quantity of oil. This means that oil producing countries, such as Nigeria, face reduced revenue as additional producers, such as UAE encroach on market shares. This means that the total GDP for the country decreases as there are less injections from oil exports into the economy. With less liquid currency moving within the Nigerian economy economic development is restricted. This is because economic development depends on the transfer of capital in the economy. As capital moves within the economy it is available for development and expansion of markets within the economy, which in turns provides consumers and producers with more availability. This is a form of economic development, as the economy expands, while it does not necessarily raise the standard of living for everyone in the economy.

 

Question 3:  Using the data above, comment on the economic development process in Nigeria over the period 1997 to 2009.

Economic development took place over the last decade in Nigeria as the price of oil rose. The result of this is an increase in the revenue for Nigeria and therefore the available capital in the economy. With capital available in the economy for spending and purchasing goods both consumers and producers are stimulated, resulting in increases in investment and overall purchases. This inflow of capital can be seen in the data as Nigeria is constantly positive in its current account balance (with the exception of 2001), which means that it is annually exporting more than it is importing, result in an increase in capital for the economy. The result, as shown by the data is an increase in the spending on healthcare in Nigeria, as infant mortality has dropped significantly from 2001 to 2009. Additionally the Nigerian economy has developed in reducing its outstanding debt from 1997 to 2009, which indicates again that the Nigerian economy is looking to secure future development.

 

Question 4:  Examine the factors that might have caused the fall in the economic potential of a country as rich as Nigeria.

Factors that could have potentially caused a drop in the economic potential for a country as rich as Nigeria include, most namely, a drop in potential revenue that fuels the country’s development. As it can be seen in the data above, the drop in oil prices resulted in a drop in revenue for the Nigerian economy, and with less liquid capital in the economy it becomes harder for consumers and producers to expand and develop. This drop of revenue, while a singular factor effecting the economy, can stem from a number of sources. Most likely given the historical context of Nigeria, an increase in supply of oil from other producers has driven down the global price of oil, reducing Nigerian revenue. A drop in the supply of Nigerian oil could be a cause of revenue loss as well, as there is less inflow to the Nigerian economy. Finally, a drop in consumer demand for Nigeria’s exports, both oil based and otherwise, could be a cause for a fall in economic potential for Nigeria. While this is unlikely given the global growing demand for oil since the 1950’s, it is a possible factor to take into consideration.

 

Question 5:  From the early 2000s the price of oil has risen again. Using appropriate diagrams, evaluate the impact of an oil price increase on the economy of Nigeria.

As the price of oil has risen the impact in Nigeria has been an increase in revenue from oil exports. This is apparent in the data given the  drop in outstanding debt (which could only come from revenue in Nigeria being used to pay back the debt), the consistent current account surplus experienced by the Nigerian economy (with the exception of 2001), and the consistent GDP growth in excess of 3% since 2000. This can be attributed to the increase in oil prices globally as the demand for oil increases. This can be represented on a supply and demand diagram, such as in Figure B. Here, demand increases from D1 to D2, which subsequently leads to a rise in price, specifically from 17 USD in 1995 to 104 USD in 2011. The result is a further increase in the Real GDP of Nigeria from Q1 to Q2.

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One Response to Data Response – Nigeria

  1. Mr. Nguyen says:

    Q4: Consider the failure of government: corruption.

    Q5: Remember the negative effects on rise in oil prices (revenue): inflation.

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