Data Response – Nigeria

Question 1:  Explain using supply and demand diagrams why in the last two decades of the 20th century the long term price of commodities such as oil fell.

One explanation for the drop in oil prices in the last two decades of the 20th century is an increase in its supply, or availability. This increase in supply coincides with times of increased drilling for crude oil in the world, specifically in countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, making it a valid explanation for the drop in long term commodity prices. This increase in supply be demonstrated on a supply and demand graph, as seen in Figure A. Here the supply of oil increases from S1 to S2, causing a decrease in price. The price here drops across the two decades from USD 37 to USD 17, as shown in Figure A. A subsequent effect of the drop in oil prices is the increase in demand and therefore Real GDP, which is shown as Q1 increases to Q2 in Figure A.

 

Question 2:  Explain how falling commodity prices can impede economic development.

With an increase in global oil supply and a drop in oil prices, oil producers receive less revenue for a static quantity of oil. This means that oil producing countries, such as Nigeria, face reduced revenue as additional producers, such as UAE encroach on market shares. This means that the total GDP for the country decreases as there are less injections from oil exports into the economy. With less liquid currency moving within the Nigerian economy economic development is restricted. This is because economic development depends on the transfer of capital in the economy. As capital moves within the economy it is available for development and expansion of markets within the economy, which in turns provides consumers and producers with more availability. This is a form of economic development, as the economy expands, while it does not necessarily raise the standard of living for everyone in the economy.

 

Question 3:  Using the data above, comment on the economic development process in Nigeria over the period 1997 to 2009.

Economic development took place over the last decade in Nigeria as the price of oil rose. The result of this is an increase in the revenue for Nigeria and therefore the available capital in the economy. With capital available in the economy for spending and purchasing goods both consumers and producers are stimulated, resulting in increases in investment and overall purchases. This inflow of capital can be seen in the data as Nigeria is constantly positive in its current account balance (with the exception of 2001), which means that it is annually exporting more than it is importing, result in an increase in capital for the economy. The result, as shown by the data is an increase in the spending on healthcare in Nigeria, as infant mortality has dropped significantly from 2001 to 2009. Additionally the Nigerian economy has developed in reducing its outstanding debt from 1997 to 2009, which indicates again that the Nigerian economy is looking to secure future development.

 

Question 4:  Examine the factors that might have caused the fall in the economic potential of a country as rich as Nigeria.

Factors that could have potentially caused a drop in the economic potential for a country as rich as Nigeria include, most namely, a drop in potential revenue that fuels the country’s development. As it can be seen in the data above, the drop in oil prices resulted in a drop in revenue for the Nigerian economy, and with less liquid capital in the economy it becomes harder for consumers and producers to expand and develop. This drop of revenue, while a singular factor effecting the economy, can stem from a number of sources. Most likely given the historical context of Nigeria, an increase in supply of oil from other producers has driven down the global price of oil, reducing Nigerian revenue. A drop in the supply of Nigerian oil could be a cause of revenue loss as well, as there is less inflow to the Nigerian economy. Finally, a drop in consumer demand for Nigeria’s exports, both oil based and otherwise, could be a cause for a fall in economic potential for Nigeria. While this is unlikely given the global growing demand for oil since the 1950’s, it is a possible factor to take into consideration.

 

Question 5:  From the early 2000s the price of oil has risen again. Using appropriate diagrams, evaluate the impact of an oil price increase on the economy of Nigeria.

As the price of oil has risen the impact in Nigeria has been an increase in revenue from oil exports. This is apparent in the data given the  drop in outstanding debt (which could only come from revenue in Nigeria being used to pay back the debt), the consistent current account surplus experienced by the Nigerian economy (with the exception of 2001), and the consistent GDP growth in excess of 3% since 2000. This can be attributed to the increase in oil prices globally as the demand for oil increases. This can be represented on a supply and demand diagram, such as in Figure B. Here, demand increases from D1 to D2, which subsequently leads to a rise in price, specifically from 17 USD in 1995 to 104 USD in 2011. The result is a further increase in the Real GDP of Nigeria from Q1 to Q2.

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Investment Surges in Renewable Energy

Trends in 2010 have lead to an increase in investment for renewable energy by around 34%. An investment in renewable energy by a government would affect the economy’s aggregate supply (AS). This is because with renewable energy, there will be a decrease in production costs, a factor of the AS curve. By saving costs in the production phase by reusing resources, forms will have more capital to spend of increasing production and expanding. This will lead to a shift to the right for the AS curve as the total production possibility of the economy increases. This shift will lead to a drop in average prices and an increase in Real GDP as the economy produces more. This decrease in average prices can be seen in Figure 1 as the shift from P to P1. Additionally, the increase in Real GDP can be seen as a shift right from Y to Y1. This will most likely lead to an expansion in economic capacity in the long run as there is less spending on long term production costs, leading to an increase in production and therefore in a rise in Real GDP in the economy.

 

Commanding Heights – Battle for the World Economy Impressions

Recently in our IB HL Economics class we watched the video Commanding Heights – Battle for the World Economy. This video detailed the ideas of both Keynesian economists and the more recent development of Hayek’s ideas in the world economy. The video interestingly covered the ideas of market control vs the free market. Both the idea of a free market, supported by Keynes, and a controlled or planned economy, supported by Hayek, have their strengths and weaknesses. People generally disagree with the idea of a controlled government because it is associated with the idea of a government having complete control over economic effects and direction. However, having a government that plans the direction of the economy in order to stimulate development is something that has proved very effective in the more recent world economy  – specifically in the United States and Great Britain. However, a free market is associated with the idea that the market itself will eliminate and ‘cleanse’ itself of the weaker industries that are unable to function without government intervention. A good example of this was the coal industry in Britain in the 1980’s. The industry was huge, but relied on subsidies to operate, at one point exceeding $3 Billion annually to support the 180,000 jobs it provided. Now in Britain, due to the privatization of the coal sector, only 3,000 jobs remain, but the industry is completely free of government subsidies.

Reflection – What I have learned about the “explain” question

In my most recent summative examination in IB HL Economics, I feel I have failed to effectively elaborate upon the question. In explaining the differences between profit maximization and sales revenue maximization, I missed the explanation between the two ideas as goals of a firm. An example of this is that while it may seem most sensible for a firm to maximize it’s profit, a goal aiming at long run production increase could choose to increase it’s sales revenue in order to lower cost, exploiting an economy of scale and marginal return increase. This is represented on a normal cost curve diagram as the cost of the product shifts downward along the AC curve. As well as this sales revenue maximization is a goal of the firm in increasing market shares, as lowering cost will result in the firm being able to gain more customer loyalty and temporarily boost sales. This idea as a goal of a firm is especially important in a monopolistic competition style market, where consumer loyalty and lowering prices is important in controlling market shares.

Portfolio Selection – Semester 1

Here I’ll be covering the basis of my portfolio on my blog, including direct links to other articles and blog posts within my blog that I find effective in expressing some of the ideas I have learned so far in Semester 1 of IB HL Economics with Dr. Anthony.

PPC Diagrams – While we only briefly talked about PPC Diagrams in the beginning of the Semester to explain opportunity cost, I did happen to explain it in both a blog post and VoiceThread update. PPC diagrams are essential in understanding opportunity cost and how there are limited supplies for unlimited wants and needs. Link here.

Demand and Supply Curves – We have looked existentially at these are they are the basis for most ideas in economics. Being able to understand how supply and demand interact is important in understanding why market prices are established, and how raising or lowering prices can affect these values. Link here.

Price Ceilings and Floors – A common concept associated with the construction of supply and demand curves is the use of price ceilings and floors in an economy to regulate prices. Both can be used to either keep prices low for the consumer’s benefit or high for the producer’s benefit. However, many people don’t understand how these restrictions on price can upset the regulation created by free markets which establish their own prices at the point which is most beneficial for producers and consumers. Link here.

Feel free to browse through the rest of my blog posts in addition to the ones linked here. Find anything you like? Drop me a comment and let me know. I’ll be sure to be keeping the blog more updated now as I continue to learn more about the basics of microeconomics here at Canadian Academy.

IB Blog Refection – Economics

1) IB Economics grading style is very different from the grading schemes of other classes. The criteria focuses more on direct definitions, key concept application and examples. I’ve found that grading wise the use of examples to explain concepts is always a positive. Using graphs to coincide with these examples and definitions is always advised.

2) Having more formative practice is very helpful. The ability to practice how we need to organize and express our ideas prior to their actual application for a grade is very helpful in reinforcing both specific definitions and also how we use these definitions to explain ideas. I can say that more formative practice will lead to better grades, but I feel that under the general circumstances of learning that is always a given. I feel the formative practice given to us to use for Section 1 was just enough to allow us to gauge how we wanted to write our final paper.